Workshop on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenarios for IPBES

Global modelling community promotes integration of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways

Leipzig. International experts meet from 4-6 October at the iDiv core centre to discuss biodiversity and ecosystem services scenarios for the Intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Invited by Henrique M. Pereira(iDiv and MLU), they want to focus on the latest trends in Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP). SSPs are pathways that describe alternative futures of socio-economic development in the absence of policy intervention. This approach is already used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to analyse the feedbacks between climate change and socio-economic factors, such as world population growth, economic development and technological progress. Now the IPBES is discussing how to transfer this approach to the biodiversity issue. At this workshop, the global modelling community on biodiversity and ecosystem services will come together for the first time to compare the results of the SSP scenario runs across models and indicators, and discuss future directions for collaborative and integrative modelling. Over the next few years, IPBES will vision and develop a new set of scenarios that will impact biodiversity conservation across scales and sectors around the globe. The new IPBES scenarios and modelling framework will shift traditional ways of forecasting impacts of society on nature to more integrative, nature-centred visions and pathways for the future of nature that are relevant for conservation policies and practice. It will integrate socio-ecological feedback loops across drivers, biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and human well-being, incorporating multiple systems of knowledge. In the short term (2017-2018), IPBES will mobilise wider scientific communities to engage in forecasting the development of nature and nature’s contributions to people using classic modelling approaches. The modelling communities will run existing global scale models to assess the impact of future human development trajectories (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] from IPCC) on biodiversity and ecosystem services, using harmonized land use (e.g. LUH2) and climate (e.g. ISI-MIP, WorldClim) datasets. The modelled results will serve as an input to the ongoing IPBES Global Assessment, and contribute to the modelling of long-term scenarios in future IPBES assessments.The modelling process will engage a wide range of stakeholders and scientific communities in order to produce policy-relevant and scientifically credible scenarios and projections on changes in the status and trends of biodiversity. This will help researchers, policymakers and practitioners to identify areas of concern to further explore policy interventions and management alternatives that could impact biodiversity conservation. The modelling groups participating in the workshop include: BIOMOD (Wilfried Thuiller), SDMs (Walter Jetz, Daniele Baisero, Piero Visconti), PREDICTS (Andy Purvis), countryside SAR (Henrique M. Pereira, David Leclere), MADINGLY (Mike Hartfoot), BILBI (Simon Ferrier), InVEST (Becky Chaplin-Kramer), GLOSP (Carlos Guerra), LPJ-GUESS (Almut Arneth), LUH2 (George C. Hurtt), GLOBIO (Rob Alkemade), IMAGE (Elke Stehfest), AIM (Tomoko Hasegawa), and GLOBIOM (Petr Havlik). By HyeJin Kim (Biodiversity Conservation, iDiv)Contact:HyeJin Kim
Biodiversity Conservation
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv)
Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Phone: +49 341 9733111
Web: https://www.idiv.de/groups_and_people/employees/details/eshow/kim-hyejin.htmlProf Henrique Pereira
Biodiversity Conservation
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv)
Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Phone: +49 341 97 33137
Web: https://www.idiv.de/groups_and_people/employees/details/eshow/pereira_henrique_miguel.htmlMore information about the involvement of iDiv researchers with IPBES:https://www.idiv.de/ipbes/Reference: Rosa, IMD, Pereira, HM, Ferrier, S, Alkemade, R., etc. 2017. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures. Nature Ecology & Evolution 1, 1416–1419. doi:10.1038/s41559-017-0273-9
https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0273-9Workshop participants: Aafke Schipper (PBL), Alexander Popp (PIK), Almut Arneth (KIT), Andy Purvis (Imperial College London), Anne Mimet (Helmholtz), Becky Chaplin-Kramer (Stanford U.), Carlos Guerra (iDiv), Cornelia Krug (U. of Zurich), David Leclere (IIASA), Daniele Baisero (Sapienza U. of Rome), Elke Stehfest (PBL), George C. Hurtt (U. of Maryland), Henrique Miguel Pereira (iDiv), HyeJin Kim (iDiv), Ines Martins (iDiv), Isabel M.D. Rosa (iDiv), Jan Janse (PBL), Janina Kleemann (iDiv), Josef Settele (UFZ Halle), Luís Borda de Água (U. of Lisbon), Miguel Bastos Araùjo (U. of Copenhagen), Mike Harfoot (UNEP-WCMC), Nestor Fernandez (iDiv), Paul Leadley (U. of Paris-Sud), Petr Havlik (IIASA), Piero Visconti (U. of College London), Rich Sharp (Stanford U.), Rob Alkemade (PBL), Samantha Hill (UNEP-WCMC), Simon Ferrier (CSIRO), Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES), Walter Jetz (Yale U.), Wilfried Thuiller (CNRS)